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A prediction market is a platform where you trade shares on future events. Basemarket operates as a decentralized exchange for event outcomes.

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How It Works

  • Trade event outcomes – Buy and sell shares in binary outcomes like “Will candidate X win the election?”
  • Share pricing – Each share trades between $0.00 and $1.00.
  • Settlement – When an event resolves, winning shares pay out $1.00.
  • Peer-to-peer trading – You trade directly with other users, not against a house.

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Prices Reflect Probability

Share prices represent the market’s collective estimate of an event’s probability. A share trading at $0.40 suggests a 40% chance of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges, traders adjust their positions, and prices update to reflect the latest consensus probability.

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How You Profit

  • Buy YES when you think an event is more likely than the current price suggests.
  • Buy NO when you think an event is less likely than the price indicates.
  • Sell early to lock in profits or cut losses before the event concludes.
The spread between your entry and exit price, multiplied by your position size, determines your profit or loss.