Skip to main contentBasemarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market powered by Base that lets you trade shares based on future events. When you have insight into what’s likely to happen, you can profit by taking positions on those outcomes.
How It Works
Basemarket operates as a decentralized exchange for event outcomes:
- Trade event outcomes – Buy and sell shares in binary outcomes like “Will candidate X win the election?”
- Share pricing – Each share trades between $0.00 and $1.00, and each pair of shares (“YES” and “NO”) is fully collaterized by $1.00 USDC.
- Settlement – When an event resolves, winning shares pay out $1.00.
- Peer-to-peer trading – You trade directly with other users, not against a house.
- Exit anytime – Close your position before the event resolves to realize gains or limit losses.
Market Dynamics
Share prices reflect collective market sentiment about event probability. A share trading at $0.40 suggests the market estimates a 40% chance of that outcome occurring.
Prices move based on supply and demand from traders. As new information emerges, traders adjust their positions, and prices update to reflect the latest consensus probability.
By aggregating collective insight, prediction markets act as truth-seeking systems that reveal a more accurate reflection of reality amid imperfect information.
Trading Strategy
Your profit comes from correctly anticipating outcomes:
- Buy YES when you think an event is more likely than the current price suggests.
- Buy NO when you think an event is less likely than the current price indicates.
- Sell early to lock in profits or cut losses before the event concludes.
The spread between your entry and exit price, multiplied by your position size, determines your profit or loss.
Example: You buy 100 YES shares on “Yankees to beat the Mets” at $0.52 per share ($52 total). In the first inning, the Yankees score 4 runs and the price jumps to $0.72. You sell your position immediately for $72, locking in a $20 profit without waiting for the game to finish. 
